The polls show a large Labour lead and a prospect of the Party returning to Government after the worst result since 1935 in the 2019 election,.
Locally the prospects are good. The small Labour majority in Dagenham and Rainham should be increased if the national polls are in any way accurate.
Romford has long been a safe Conservative seat. However, the national Labour lead is likely to dent the majority. The local issues with the MP absent from the House of Commons for an extended period appear to have been resolved. What is less clear is the extent to which defections by Romford Conservative councillors reflects a wider split within the local Tories, and whether this will mean a depleted number of activists. This could be a factor, or irrelevant. Defections from Romford Conservative Councillors to the Residents suggest there is something happening.
When Havering has changed MPs in the past, the swing from the Governing Party has been above the national average – if repeated, then Romford could be very much in play.
Hornchurch and Upminster has a larger Conservative majority. It does however have no Conservative Councillors. This means the electorate have no “tribal” loyalty to the Conservative Party. As in 1997, it is possible that electors who support the residents at Council elections are prepared to vote for someone else in a general election. This could be Labour or Reform. A strong Reform vote at the expense of the Tories could bring the seat in to play. The sheer size of the majority means the seat is at the outer reach for Labour although if Labour maintains a twenty per cent plus lead its game on.
Demographic factors may help Labour in the longer term. The Borough has an increasingly diverse communities, although changing voting patterns do not mean this guarantees a higher level of Labour support.
The national trend is for young voters to support Labour – a recent poll suggested that Labour is ahead in every age group up to the over sixty-fives. If sustained, this would help Labour locally.
Beyond Havering, the forecast is for significant Labour gains in London. Polls with the widest opinion poll lead for Labour could see the Conservatives wiped out in London. This seems unlikely\ optimistic.
In Essex, the polls show Thurrock turning Labour, with gains in Southend and Colchester. Even Clacton could return a Labour MP. The polls also show both Basildon seats returning a Labour MP. As with Havering when Governments change Essex tends to swing more than the rest of the Country.
There are a number of Labour candidates who have spoken at Havering Fabians.
| Seat | Candidate |
| Dagenham and Rainham | Margaret Mullane |
| Romford | Andrew achilleos |
| Ilford South | Jas Athwal |
| Ilford North | Wes Streeting |
| Barking | Darren Rodwell |
| East Ham | Stephen Timms |
| Eltham and Chislehurst | Clive Efford |
| Felton and Heston | Seema Malhotra |
| Reading and West Berkshire | Olivia Bailey |
| Harrow West | Gareth Thomas |
| Thanet North | Polly Billington |
| Gillingham and Rainham | Naushabah Khan |
| Thurrock | Jen Craft |
| West Lancashire | Ashley Dalton |
| Leeds South | Hilary Benn |
There are some departing MPs who have spoken to us as well.
| Jon Cruddas | Dagenham and Rainham |
| Geraint Davies | Swansea West |
| Margaret Hodge | Barking |
In addition, Catherine Deakin who attended our zoom meeting with Hilary Benn is the candidate in Broxbourne.
Havering Fabian Society 