labour-party

Havering Election prospects May 2026

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Havering Labour did  well in the 2024 General Election, with the best result since 1997. The Conservative majorities in Romford and Hornchurch and Upminster fell by15,155 (30%) and 20,235 (32.9%) respectively. Labour was 1,463 short in Romford and 2,321 short in Hornchurch and Upminster (even though finishing third).

Analysis undertaken on behalf of the New Statesman[1], while heavily caveated, showed that this would have put Labour ahead in nine out of the 20 Havering wards, potentially doubling the number of Havering Labour Councillors. This analysis excludes Havering Resident Association (HRA) of course, so the position in May 2026 will be vastly different.

The composition of Havering Council has changed from that at the last Council election in May 2022, despite no changes via by elections[2]. The defections to and from each of the major groups has left the HRA in overall control, ending a brief coalition with Labour aimed at stabilising the Council.

PartyCouncillors elected in 2022Defections toDefections fromDefections backCouncillors March 2026
HRA20+10-5025
Conservative230-10+114
Labour90-108
East Havering RA30003
Reform0+3003
RA independent0+2002
      
Total55+15-16+155

Table 1 gives the position as of 18th February 2026. Further defections are possible. As of mid April, there were no further defections.

In a genuine four or even five Party contest, Councillors could be elected on 25% (or less) of the vote[3]. What happens in May depends on several factors. How these factors interact will determine the outcome of the election.

  • Sitting Councillors who undertake their casework will build a personal vote, The opposite is also true, and inactive Councillors will encourage voters to look elsewhere. There are no statistics which allow non constituents to identify who these are. Some Councillors have better attendance records than others[4]
  • The extent to which National Government issues impact – Labour is not doing well in the national opinion polls and not doing well either with London only polls. [5]In 2006, Labour had only two councillors elected (including an unlikely gain in South Hornchurch) and only Keith Darvill in 2014. UKIP won council seats on Harold Hill in 2014, and so Reform would be expected to target the area.
  • The discontent (or otherwise) of the local electorate with the HRA administration. Local social media would suggest this is a big issue, although social media is often not a good guide. The deep-rooted support for HRA councillors has seen them retain Hacton and Cranham wards since Havering was formed in 1965, and secure large majorities elsewhere.
  • How the growth of Reform will impact on the local Conservatives, given that national polls show the Conservatives down from their General Election vote share[6]. This could be significant given the recent defection of the Romford MP, GLA member (also a Havering Councillor) and at the time of writing two sitting Councillors. Romford has not been a rewarding area for the HRA. Hylands ward which they won in 2022 had previously been in Hornchurch and had elected RA councillors in the past.
  • The extent of  overlap in the HRA and Reform voters, and which they will prefer at a local election. The Reform agenda, such as it is, is focused on issues the Council cannot resolve. While Reform can offer a protest vote option, the Labour Government will remain, and Havering has significant issues to address,
  • Havering has always had a resident presence to attract the “plague on both your houses” voter, which has limited the Liberal\ Lib Dem presence on the Council. In this context, the growth of Reform as the “anti big”  Party alternative suggests this will not change in May.
  • The Greens have been canvassing, and previous lack of success in Havering makes an assessment of their potential impact difficult. They are likely to have an increased vote share in the aftermath of the  Gorton and Denton by-election. They may benefit from a 4 or 5 way split in the vote, lowering the number required to get elected.
  • Are Reform so divisive that an anti-Reform sentiment crystallises into a tactical vote to keep them out?
  • There could be further complications; this is Havering after all. There have been breakaway/ independent Resident groups outside of the HRA that could split the vote further in key wards (Harold Wood has elected three at previous elections). In a five-way split, any Party has a chance if it can get voters to the polls. Gooshays is the only ward this time where there are HRA and independent resident candidates.
  • Turnout could be crucial. A lower turnout reduces the number of votes required to get elected, so may lead to unexpected outcomes, particularly if one group of voters stay at home. Arguably this was an issue in the 2024 General Election when a significant proportion of the Conservative vote remained at home. They are unlikely to return for the Council elections.

In the 2014 Council elections , when 7 UKIP Councillors were elected[7],   5 of the seats they won were on Harold Hill (from Labour), the others in Emerson Park (from the Conservatives) and South Hornchurch (HRA). While UKIP polled well across the Borough, they did not gain any Councillors in Romford as the Conservative vote held up. Rosindell’s defection, along with Councillors and candidates’ means Reform may take seats in the Romford constituency.

Reform will need to take votes from the HRA to get significantly more Councillors elected than UKIP managed.

Outside of Romford, The HRA wards in Hornchurch and Upminster have Councillors elected with large majorities which are likely to remain with the Residents.

There are ten seats in the south of the Borough within the Dagenham and Rainham constituency. In the 2022 council election, Labour won the new  two seat Beam Park ward, which has since  had major development and so has significantly more voters.

South Hornchurch and Elm Park wards returned HRA councillors and could be vulnerable if there is a significant Reform vote. In 2006 and 2014, with a slightly different boundary, South Hornchurch returned Councillors from three parties (although it is now a 2-seat ward following boundary changes in 2022).

The final ward, Rainham, is harder to predict. In previous elections it has previously returned Resident, Liberal and Labour Councillors and in 2022, against the national trend,  returned  3 Conservative Councillors for the first time. A local community activist (who almost got elected in 2018) as an independent stood on their platform, and they used this to win all three seats. All three Councillors soon defected to the HRA, although one later rejoined the Conservatives. With two of the  current Councillors standing down, the seat is a target for Labour and Reform.

Attitudes to defecting Councillors could be an issue. There have been so many that it is hard to keep up. Recent defections from the Conservatives to Reform generated social media statements from many  (but not all)  of the already selected Conservative candidates that they would remain in place.

Despite this, such was Andrew Rosindell’s influence on the Romford Conservatives prior to  his defection that they deselected one of their most visible councillors David Taylor in St Edwards ward. He has not been nominated for one of the vacancies created by the defections to Reform and recently said on social media he would be spending more time with his family.

Despite the MP for Hornchurch and Upminster having a 20,235 majority in 2019, the Council Elections in 2022 saw no Conservative Councillors returned from Hornchurch and Upminster constituency. The Conservatives currently have 14 Councillors, all but one in Romford.

The HRA will contest the election without the current Council Leader Ray Morgon, who has announced he is retiring and moving to Dorset. His Deputy Gillian Ford appears to be the favourite to take over as group leader after the election. Their early election posts on social media target Reform, specifically the lack of local focus. The addition of former Conservative Councillors may alter Reform’s approach, although the tedious campaign to extract Havering from the Greater London Authority rumbles on. The local Tories had control of the Council from 2002 until 2022 and have held the GLA seat since  the GLA started. Their failure to develop common ground and build alliances with similar boroughs in outer London gives no indication they would do any better with Essex or any successor authorities. While the issue excites social media it is a distraction and reform of London local government is not on the agenda of any major national party.

The most likely outcome of the election is no overall control. If the election ends this way, finding a coalition that can form an administration could be difficult. Relations between the HRA and Conservatives have been strained in the past. The HRA  only allowed the  Conservatives to form a minority Administration in 2014 if the veteran (importantly non-Romford) Conservative Roger Ramsey was Leader.

After the 2022 election, there was no prospect of an HRA / Conservative arrangement. Some HRA councillors opposed the coalition with Labour and formed their own group outside the administration. The HRA Labour arrangement ended when the defections enabled the HRA to form an administration on their own. The strain may remain if any former Romford Conservative are elected as Reform Councillors.

Nominations closed on April 10th. There are some interesting candidates with a history in the Borough. There are 55 seats and Labour, Conservative, HRA, Reform and the Green Party are standing in every seat. The Liberal Democrats are standing one candidate in each seat, and there are a small number of independents standing,

The candidates include a number of long-standing Councillors seeking re-election. They are joined by others who have stood before and below is a brief overview of some of those seeking election again.

Former Airfield Labour Councillor Chris Purnell is standing in Emerson Park.

For Gooshays Ward there are  several interesting candidates. Former Brooklands Councillor Nigel Meyer once again stands for the Lib Dems. Paul McGeary, elected as a Labour Councillor in 2022, stands for the HRA. Former Havering UKIP Councillor Philip Hyde, until recently in Reform, runs as an Independent. Current Reform Leader and GLA Member Keith Prince moves from Squirrels Heath. To complicate the ballot paper further, there are candidates for both the HRA and Harold Hill Independent Residents Association.  In all 20 candidates on the ballot paper!

In Harold Wood, there are no alternative Residents as in 2022. Former Barking and Dagenham Councillor Graham Bramley  is a Labour Candidate.

Former Labour Councillor Carole Beth is a Green Party candidate in Heaton ward.

In Hylands and Harrow Lodge, Ciaran White is standing for the HRA after defeat as a Conservative in 2022.

Former Labour MEP Anita Pollack is standing as Labour candidate in Marshalls and Rise Park.

In Rush Green and Crowlands ex HRA and Conservative Councillor Alex Donald is now a Reform candidate. Former Labour candidate for Romford Angelina Leatherbarrow is standing for the Greens.

Former Havering Councillor and Mayor Michael Deon Burton is again a Conservative candidate for South Hornchurch.

In St Andrews, new Havering Fabian Secretary Keith Taffs is a Labour candidate having previously contested the seat in 2009 and 2010.

In St Edwards, former Newham Councillor Pushpa Makwana is standing for Labour.

Overview

Despite a favourable settlement as part of the Fair Funding review, Havering remains in need of Exceptional Financial Support from the Government[8]. Achieving financial stability will require difficult and unpopular decisions. Reform performance in Councils won in 2025 does not suggest they are able to deliver. With five full slates of candidates, the count will be a long process, and it could well be well into Friday afternoon before the results is known. If the outcome is no overall control, it could be several weeks before an administration is in place.

[1] The ultimate 2024 General Election breakdown – State of the Nation

[2] The one by election, in Upminster Ward was a comfortable HRA hold. The Conservative candidate was disowned by the Party and still came second.

[3] Labour and the Conservatives are estimated to have achieved this level in seventeen wards during the 2024 General Election, Reform 10.

[4] Havering Councillors and Their Attendance – Politics in Havering

[5] Labour hits new record low in London with Tories pushed into fourth place behind Greens and Reform, poll finds | The Standard

[6] UK Polls Today – Latest Voting Intention Tracker | PollCheck

[7] Five in Harold Hill one each in Emerson Park and South Hornchurch. UKIP were narrow runners up in several more seats.

[8] 5.0 Budget report cabinet 2026.pdf

Election 2024

| haveringfabians

The polls show a large Labour lead and a prospect of the Party returning to Government after the worst result since 1935 in the 2019 election,.

Locally the prospects are good. The small  Labour majority in Dagenham and Rainham should be increased if the national polls are in any way accurate.

Romford has long been a safe Conservative seat. However, the national Labour lead is likely to dent the majority. The local issues with the MP absent from the House of Commons for an extended period appear to have been resolved. What is less clear is the extent to which defections by Romford Conservative councillors reflects a wider split within the local Tories, and whether this will mean a depleted number of activists. This could be a factor, or irrelevant. Defections from Romford Conservative Councillors  to the Residents suggest there is something happening.

When Havering has changed MPs in the past, the swing from the Governing Party has been above the national average – if repeated, then Romford could be very much in play.

Hornchurch and Upminster has a larger Conservative majority. It does however have no Conservative Councillors. This means the electorate have no “tribal” loyalty to the Conservative Party. As in 1997, it is possible that electors who support the residents at Council elections are prepared to vote for someone else in a general election. This could be Labour or Reform. A strong Reform vote at the expense of the Tories could bring the seat in to play. The sheer size of the majority means the seat is at the outer reach for Labour although if Labour maintains a twenty per cent plus lead its game on.

Demographic factors may help Labour in the longer term. The Borough has an increasingly diverse communities, although changing voting patterns do not mean this guarantees a higher level of Labour support.

The national trend is for young voters to support Labour – a recent poll suggested that Labour is ahead in every age group up to the over sixty-fives. If sustained, this would help Labour locally.

Beyond Havering, the forecast is for significant Labour gains in London. Polls with the widest opinion poll lead for Labour could see the Conservatives wiped out in London. This seems unlikely\ optimistic.

In Essex, the polls show Thurrock turning Labour, with gains in Southend and Colchester. Even Clacton could return a Labour MP. The polls also show both Basildon seats returning a Labour MP. As with Havering when Governments change Essex tends to swing more than the rest of the Country.

There are a number of Labour candidates who have spoken at Havering Fabians.

SeatCandidate
Dagenham and RainhamMargaret Mullane
RomfordAndrew achilleos
Ilford SouthJas Athwal
Ilford NorthWes Streeting
BarkingDarren Rodwell
East HamStephen Timms
Eltham and ChislehurstClive Efford
Felton and HestonSeema Malhotra
Reading and West BerkshireOlivia Bailey
Harrow WestGareth Thomas
Thanet NorthPolly Billington
Gillingham and RainhamNaushabah Khan
ThurrockJen Craft
West LancashireAshley Dalton
Leeds SouthHilary Benn

There are some departing MPs who have spoken to us as well.

Jon CruddasDagenham and Rainham
Geraint DaviesSwansea West
Margaret HodgeBarking

In addition, Catherine Deakin who attended our zoom meeting with Hilary Benn is the candidate in Broxbourne.

PLANS FOR POWER- WOMEN AND EQUALITIES

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This article is part of a series covering the Fabian New Year Conference , written by Dave Baldock and Sue Watson

Panel consisted of: – Anneliese Dodds MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Women and Equalities.

                                Cllr Catherine Fookes, PPC for Monmouthshire.

                                Cllr Anya Sizer, Speaker of Hackney Council

                                Dr. Liz Hind, Secretary of Fabian Women’s Network

                                Chair:Cllr Marianna Masters, Chair of Fabian Women’s Network.

Annelise Dodds opened the session by emphasising 2024 is a pivotal year for the UK. She stated this could be the year where the country turns the page on division, on inequality. Where cruel barriers are removed. Annelise pointed out the gender pay gap is rising, online misogyny is rising, delays in court cases/actions are rising; that groups that put so much into society are getting so little out. This, she said, has to change.

Economic growth must include all with equalities running through all of Labour’s policies.

 Approximately $34billion is the cost to the economy of inequality. An example given was the impact of menopause. Labour will expect the workplace to have a menopause action plan. The estimate is approximately an additional £11billion to the economy if menopause support is in place. The pressure on family life was discussed with the economic along with societal impacts shared. Labour would ban zero-hour contracts and look to the use of flexible contracts.

Approximately £20billion would be added to the economy by closing the ethnic minority employment gap. For those with a disability, too many are on or below the breadline. Labour would bring in an expectation that disability pay gap would be reported. A range of suggested adaptations were shared. By lowering the pay gap for disabled workers by 2% this would add £3billion to the economy.

Annaliese called time on old ways of dividing people, on bluster, on failure and bravado and called for a government based in the Fabian tradition of evidence based practice.

This was followed by Cllr Sizer-she discussed how SEND children and young people are treated, particularly neurodiverse individuals. This, she sees, is a litmus test of who we, as a society are. The parent experience is of barriers faced at every turn. Evidence has shown mothers of teenagers with ASD exhibit the same stress as combat soldiers. Depression amongst parents is high too. There are financial and practical implications for parents too. There is a need for a change where parents/carers thrive not just survive. She pointed out the Governments recent SEND plan is simplistic and not working. Cllr Sizer called for Labour to introduce policies where SEND and trauma informed practices are embedded throughout all policies. The SEND “black hole” in council budgets and why was acknowledged however it was stated that there is a need for whole system change where there is a whole family focus on mental health, where there are parent coaching opportunities. This would be economically sound practice as well as emotionally literate.

Cllr Fookes spoke of Barbara Castle and Harriet Harman and the Acts these women brought into law. She then raised the issue of childcare and how the majority of unpaid care was undertaken by women. Wales provides 30 hours childcare for all 3-4year olds. 2.5% of GDP is invested in childcare.

A further issue she raised was around ending health inequalities for women. Cllr Fookes closed her speech by calling for 50/50 representation and leadership within the Labour party, the cabinet and parliament itself. Currently women make up 35% of parliament. Gender parity in parliament could be a quick win for an incoming Labour government.

Dr Hind spoke next re gender responsive budgeting work she has undertaken for OECD. Further this work has included how to embed this within public services. She stated 9% can be added to growth in the economy, if gender responsive budgeting is adopted. She stated that men are not the default that women diverse from, that economies are people.

There was a question from the floor about those leaving care and how they are catered for. There was a question as to if leaving care should be a protected characteristic under the Equalities Act.

A further question around the role for procurement when agreeing contracts, in supporting and enabling disabled workers was also posed.

Annaliese replied that the New Deal for Working People will help all. So many aspects of the 2010 Equality Act are not being used and Labour will use this Act more effectively. Additionally, she pointed out the Government’s disabled people strategy has been ruled illegal as they did not speak to disabled groups. Labour will engage with community groups to ensure the voices of people are heard by Labour. Labour will be the government of all not just some.

SW