Havering Labour did well in the 2024 General Election, with the best result since 1997. The Conservative majorities in Romford and Hornchurch and Upminster fell by15,155 (30%) and 20,235 (32.9%) respectively. Labour was 1,463 short in Romford and 2,321 short in Hornchurch and Upminster (even though finishing third).
Analysis undertaken on behalf of the New Statesman[1], while heavily caveated, showed that this would have put Labour ahead in nine out of the 20 Havering wards, potentially doubling the number of Havering Labour Councillors. This analysis excludes Havering Resident Association (HRA) of course, so the position in May 2026 will be vastly different.
The composition of Havering Council has changed from that at the last Council election in May 2022, despite no changes via by elections[2]. The defections to and from each of the major groups has left the HRA in overall control, ending a brief coalition with Labour aimed at stabilising the Council.
| Party | Councillors elected in 2022 | Defections to | Defections from | Defections back | Councillors March 2026 |
| HRA | 20 | +10 | -5 | 0 | 25 |
| Conservative | 23 | 0 | -10 | +1 | 14 |
| Labour | 9 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8 |
| East Havering RA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Reform | 0 | +3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| RA independent | 0 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Total | 55 | +15 | -16 | +1 | 55 |
Table 1 gives the position as of 18th February 2026. Further defections are possible. As of mid April, there were no further defections.
In a genuine four or even five Party contest, Councillors could be elected on 25% (or less) of the vote[3]. What happens in May depends on several factors. How these factors interact will determine the outcome of the election.
- Sitting Councillors who undertake their casework will build a personal vote, The opposite is also true, and inactive Councillors will encourage voters to look elsewhere. There are no statistics which allow non constituents to identify who these are. Some Councillors have better attendance records than others[4]
- The extent to which National Government issues impact – Labour is not doing well in the national opinion polls and not doing well either with London only polls. [5]In 2006, Labour had only two councillors elected (including an unlikely gain in South Hornchurch) and only Keith Darvill in 2014. UKIP won council seats on Harold Hill in 2014, and so Reform would be expected to target the area.
- The discontent (or otherwise) of the local electorate with the HRA administration. Local social media would suggest this is a big issue, although social media is often not a good guide. The deep-rooted support for HRA councillors has seen them retain Hacton and Cranham wards since Havering was formed in 1965, and secure large majorities elsewhere.
- How the growth of Reform will impact on the local Conservatives, given that national polls show the Conservatives down from their General Election vote share[6]. This could be significant given the recent defection of the Romford MP, GLA member (also a Havering Councillor) and at the time of writing two sitting Councillors. Romford has not been a rewarding area for the HRA. Hylands ward which they won in 2022 had previously been in Hornchurch and had elected RA councillors in the past.
- The extent of overlap in the HRA and Reform voters, and which they will prefer at a local election. The Reform agenda, such as it is, is focused on issues the Council cannot resolve. While Reform can offer a protest vote option, the Labour Government will remain, and Havering has significant issues to address,
- Havering has always had a resident presence to attract the “plague on both your houses” voter, which has limited the Liberal\ Lib Dem presence on the Council. In this context, the growth of Reform as the “anti big” Party alternative suggests this will not change in May.
- The Greens have been canvassing, and previous lack of success in Havering makes an assessment of their potential impact difficult. They are likely to have an increased vote share in the aftermath of the Gorton and Denton by-election. They may benefit from a 4 or 5 way split in the vote, lowering the number required to get elected.
- Are Reform so divisive that an anti-Reform sentiment crystallises into a tactical vote to keep them out?
- There could be further complications; this is Havering after all. There have been breakaway/ independent Resident groups outside of the HRA that could split the vote further in key wards (Harold Wood has elected three at previous elections). In a five-way split, any Party has a chance if it can get voters to the polls. Gooshays is the only ward this time where there are HRA and independent resident candidates.
- Turnout could be crucial. A lower turnout reduces the number of votes required to get elected, so may lead to unexpected outcomes, particularly if one group of voters stay at home. Arguably this was an issue in the 2024 General Election when a significant proportion of the Conservative vote remained at home. They are unlikely to return for the Council elections.
In the 2014 Council elections , when 7 UKIP Councillors were elected[7], 5 of the seats they won were on Harold Hill (from Labour), the others in Emerson Park (from the Conservatives) and South Hornchurch (HRA). While UKIP polled well across the Borough, they did not gain any Councillors in Romford as the Conservative vote held up. Rosindell’s defection, along with Councillors and candidates’ means Reform may take seats in the Romford constituency.
Reform will need to take votes from the HRA to get significantly more Councillors elected than UKIP managed.
Outside of Romford, The HRA wards in Hornchurch and Upminster have Councillors elected with large majorities which are likely to remain with the Residents.
There are ten seats in the south of the Borough within the Dagenham and Rainham constituency. In the 2022 council election, Labour won the new two seat Beam Park ward, which has since had major development and so has significantly more voters.
South Hornchurch and Elm Park wards returned HRA councillors and could be vulnerable if there is a significant Reform vote. In 2006 and 2014, with a slightly different boundary, South Hornchurch returned Councillors from three parties (although it is now a 2-seat ward following boundary changes in 2022).
The final ward, Rainham, is harder to predict. In previous elections it has previously returned Resident, Liberal and Labour Councillors and in 2022, against the national trend, returned 3 Conservative Councillors for the first time. A local community activist (who almost got elected in 2018) as an independent stood on their platform, and they used this to win all three seats. All three Councillors soon defected to the HRA, although one later rejoined the Conservatives. With two of the current Councillors standing down, the seat is a target for Labour and Reform.
Attitudes to defecting Councillors could be an issue. There have been so many that it is hard to keep up. Recent defections from the Conservatives to Reform generated social media statements from many (but not all) of the already selected Conservative candidates that they would remain in place.
Despite this, such was Andrew Rosindell’s influence on the Romford Conservatives prior to his defection that they deselected one of their most visible councillors David Taylor in St Edwards ward. He has not been nominated for one of the vacancies created by the defections to Reform and recently said on social media he would be spending more time with his family.
Despite the MP for Hornchurch and Upminster having a 20,235 majority in 2019, the Council Elections in 2022 saw no Conservative Councillors returned from Hornchurch and Upminster constituency. The Conservatives currently have 14 Councillors, all but one in Romford.
The HRA will contest the election without the current Council Leader Ray Morgon, who has announced he is retiring and moving to Dorset. His Deputy Gillian Ford appears to be the favourite to take over as group leader after the election. Their early election posts on social media target Reform, specifically the lack of local focus. The addition of former Conservative Councillors may alter Reform’s approach, although the tedious campaign to extract Havering from the Greater London Authority rumbles on. The local Tories had control of the Council from 2002 until 2022 and have held the GLA seat since the GLA started. Their failure to develop common ground and build alliances with similar boroughs in outer London gives no indication they would do any better with Essex or any successor authorities. While the issue excites social media it is a distraction and reform of London local government is not on the agenda of any major national party.
The most likely outcome of the election is no overall control. If the election ends this way, finding a coalition that can form an administration could be difficult. Relations between the HRA and Conservatives have been strained in the past. The HRA only allowed the Conservatives to form a minority Administration in 2014 if the veteran (importantly non-Romford) Conservative Roger Ramsey was Leader.
After the 2022 election, there was no prospect of an HRA / Conservative arrangement. Some HRA councillors opposed the coalition with Labour and formed their own group outside the administration. The HRA Labour arrangement ended when the defections enabled the HRA to form an administration on their own. The strain may remain if any former Romford Conservative are elected as Reform Councillors.
Nominations closed on April 10th. There are some interesting candidates with a history in the Borough. There are 55 seats and Labour, Conservative, HRA, Reform and the Green Party are standing in every seat. The Liberal Democrats are standing one candidate in each seat, and there are a small number of independents standing,
The candidates include a number of long-standing Councillors seeking re-election. They are joined by others who have stood before and below is a brief overview of some of those seeking election again.
Former Airfield Labour Councillor Chris Purnell is standing in Emerson Park.
For Gooshays Ward there are several interesting candidates. Former Brooklands Councillor Nigel Meyer once again stands for the Lib Dems. Paul McGeary, elected as a Labour Councillor in 2022, stands for the HRA. Former Havering UKIP Councillor Philip Hyde, until recently in Reform, runs as an Independent. Current Reform Leader and GLA Member Keith Prince moves from Squirrels Heath. To complicate the ballot paper further, there are candidates for both the HRA and Harold Hill Independent Residents Association. In all 20 candidates on the ballot paper!
In Harold Wood, there are no alternative Residents as in 2022. Former Barking and Dagenham Councillor Graham Bramley is a Labour Candidate.
Former Labour Councillor Carole Beth is a Green Party candidate in Heaton ward.
In Hylands and Harrow Lodge, Ciaran White is standing for the HRA after defeat as a Conservative in 2022.
Former Labour MEP Anita Pollack is standing as Labour candidate in Marshalls and Rise Park.
In Rush Green and Crowlands ex HRA and Conservative Councillor Alex Donald is now a Reform candidate. Former Labour candidate for Romford Angelina Leatherbarrow is standing for the Greens.
Former Havering Councillor and Mayor Michael Deon Burton is again a Conservative candidate for South Hornchurch.
In St Andrews, new Havering Fabian Secretary Keith Taffs is a Labour candidate having previously contested the seat in 2009 and 2010.
In St Edwards, former Newham Councillor Pushpa Makwana is standing for Labour.
Overview
Despite a favourable settlement as part of the Fair Funding review, Havering remains in need of Exceptional Financial Support from the Government[8]. Achieving financial stability will require difficult and unpopular decisions. Reform performance in Councils won in 2025 does not suggest they are able to deliver. With five full slates of candidates, the count will be a long process, and it could well be well into Friday afternoon before the results is known. If the outcome is no overall control, it could be several weeks before an administration is in place.
[1] The ultimate 2024 General Election breakdown – State of the Nation
[2] The one by election, in Upminster Ward was a comfortable HRA hold. The Conservative candidate was disowned by the Party and still came second.
[3] Labour and the Conservatives are estimated to have achieved this level in seventeen wards during the 2024 General Election, Reform 10.
[4] Havering Councillors and Their Attendance – Politics in Havering
[5] Labour hits new record low in London with Tories pushed into fourth place behind Greens and Reform, poll finds | The Standard
[6] UK Polls Today – Latest Voting Intention Tracker | PollCheck
[7] Five in Harold Hill one each in Emerson Park and South Hornchurch. UKIP were narrow runners up in several more seats.
Havering Fabian Society 